Medical Care Facilities Industry Report

April 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -2% 0.4% 2110 0.00 0.030 -761.00 0.00 -1580.000 0.000 0% -2.0500
first_quart -0.1% 1.5% 56700 3.96 0.385 0.88 4.81 0.560 0.000 0% -0.0739
median 0.1% 2% 282000 13.30 0.790 1.76 11.00 1.320 0.000 0% 0.4890
mean 0% 2.4% 581000 22.50 0.896 1.10 22.30 0.218 0.269 0.5% 0.4110
third_quart 0.2% 2.8% 731000 20.40 1.180 2.76 18.80 2.310 1.000 0.4% 0.9970
max 2.8% 16% 5200000 1060.00 5.180 91.30 3140.00 283.000 1.000 7.3% 2.6900



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 1, mtry: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.298
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.6635


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 10, tree_depth: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.1101
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2053




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
CCM 2020 Q2 $1.62 200.8% 673.16%
RHE 2020 Q4 $1.61 170.02% 355.97%
SSY 2020 Q4 $1.16 155.4% 171.19%
NHC 2020 Q4 $65.88 144.29% 64.89%
HCSG 2020 Q4 $24.19 105.33% 101.02%
THC 2020 Q4 $32.27 105.23% 113.5%
TLMD 2020 Q4 $8.83 96.46% 290.15%
CYH 2020 Q4 $7.07 95.38% 170.19%
FVE 2020 Q4 $5.79 95.18% 142.07%
CSU 2020 Q4 $11.48 88.22% 354.52%
AMS 2020 Q3 $2.03 81.15% 295.03%
SGRY 2020 Q4 $24.89 76.85% 15.24%
HNGR 2020 Q4 $20.51 75.51% 77.29%
UHS 2020 Q4 $124.42 72.28% 57.73%
OPCH 2020 Q3 $12.16 68.89% 63.37%
AMEH 2020 Q3 $17.25 64.87% 59.06%
IMAC 2020 Q4 $0.99 54.4% 74.13%
SEM 2020 Q4 $24.22 54.33% 43.65%
DVA 2020 Q4 $101.86 47.18% 32.88%
HCA 2020 Q4 $146.22 47.01% 99.65%
MODV 2020 Q4 $124.05 29.11% 35.77%
BKD 2020 Q4 $3.69 25.74% 63.99%
AMN 2020 Q4 $65.2 25.08% 22.84%
FMS 2020 Q4 $41.68 24.61% 60.61%
MD 2020 Q4 $18.78 17.41% 49.3%
CHE 2020 Q4 $491.33 16.71% 12.07%
USPH 2020 Q4 $100.9 7.74% -23.83%
LHCG 2020 Q4 $212.96 2.95% 18%
EHC 2020 Q4 $73.95 -3.18% 10.63%
NFH 2020 Q3 $8.2 -4.02% 21.6%
ENSG 2020 Q4 $66.28 -6.62% -13.63%
ADUS 2020 Q4 $103.21 -15.12% -9.52%
AMED 2020 Q4 $256.41 -22.42% 14.14%
ACHC 2020 Q4 $39.86 -24.76% -17.92%
OTRK 2020 Q4 $60.64 -27.61% -34.6%
AVCO 2020 Q4 $1.19 -33.38% -43.93%
PNTG 2020 Q4 $48.09 -34.32% -16.83%
TVTY 2020 Q4 $16.6 -40.23% -71.46%
JYNT 2020 Q4 $22.89 -43.74% -34.45%