Medical Care Facilities Industry Report
April 2021
Exploratory Data Analysis
Distribution of the Response
Correlation between Covariates and Response
| Avg Pct Change | Sd Pct Change | Avg Vol | Pe Ratio | Price to Sales Ratio | Price to Book Ratio | Price to Fcf Ratio | Debt to Equity Ratio | Pays Dividend | Dividend Yield | Response | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | -2% | 0.4% | 2110 | 0.00 | 0.030 | -761.00 | 0.00 | -1580.000 | 0.000 | 0% | -2.0500 |
| first_quart | -0.1% | 1.5% | 56700 | 3.96 | 0.385 | 0.88 | 4.81 | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0% | -0.0739 |
| median | 0.1% | 2% | 282000 | 13.30 | 0.790 | 1.76 | 11.00 | 1.320 | 0.000 | 0% | 0.4890 |
| mean | 0% | 2.4% | 581000 | 22.50 | 0.896 | 1.10 | 22.30 | 0.218 | 0.269 | 0.5% | 0.4110 |
| third_quart | 0.2% | 2.8% | 731000 | 20.40 | 1.180 | 2.76 | 18.80 | 2.310 | 1.000 | 0.4% | 0.9970 |
| max | 2.8% | 16% | 5200000 | 1060.00 | 5.180 | 91.30 | 3140.00 | 283.000 | 1.000 | 7.3% | 2.6900 |
Model Tuning
Random Forest Models
Gradient Boosted Models
Final Models
Random Forest Model
Model Info and Metrics
- min_n: 1, mtry: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.298
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.6635
Gradient Boosted Model
Model Info and Metrics
- learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 10, tree_depth: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.1101
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2053
Future Predictions
| Company | Quarter | Price | RF Prediction | GB Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCM | 2020 Q2 | $1.62 | 200.8% | 673.16% |
| RHE | 2020 Q4 | $1.61 | 170.02% | 355.97% |
| SSY | 2020 Q4 | $1.16 | 155.4% | 171.19% |
| NHC | 2020 Q4 | $65.88 | 144.29% | 64.89% |
| HCSG | 2020 Q4 | $24.19 | 105.33% | 101.02% |
| THC | 2020 Q4 | $32.27 | 105.23% | 113.5% |
| TLMD | 2020 Q4 | $8.83 | 96.46% | 290.15% |
| CYH | 2020 Q4 | $7.07 | 95.38% | 170.19% |
| FVE | 2020 Q4 | $5.79 | 95.18% | 142.07% |
| CSU | 2020 Q4 | $11.48 | 88.22% | 354.52% |
| AMS | 2020 Q3 | $2.03 | 81.15% | 295.03% |
| SGRY | 2020 Q4 | $24.89 | 76.85% | 15.24% |
| HNGR | 2020 Q4 | $20.51 | 75.51% | 77.29% |
| UHS | 2020 Q4 | $124.42 | 72.28% | 57.73% |
| OPCH | 2020 Q3 | $12.16 | 68.89% | 63.37% |
| AMEH | 2020 Q3 | $17.25 | 64.87% | 59.06% |
| IMAC | 2020 Q4 | $0.99 | 54.4% | 74.13% |
| SEM | 2020 Q4 | $24.22 | 54.33% | 43.65% |
| DVA | 2020 Q4 | $101.86 | 47.18% | 32.88% |
| HCA | 2020 Q4 | $146.22 | 47.01% | 99.65% |
| MODV | 2020 Q4 | $124.05 | 29.11% | 35.77% |
| BKD | 2020 Q4 | $3.69 | 25.74% | 63.99% |
| AMN | 2020 Q4 | $65.2 | 25.08% | 22.84% |
| FMS | 2020 Q4 | $41.68 | 24.61% | 60.61% |
| MD | 2020 Q4 | $18.78 | 17.41% | 49.3% |
| CHE | 2020 Q4 | $491.33 | 16.71% | 12.07% |
| USPH | 2020 Q4 | $100.9 | 7.74% | -23.83% |
| LHCG | 2020 Q4 | $212.96 | 2.95% | 18% |
| EHC | 2020 Q4 | $73.95 | -3.18% | 10.63% |
| NFH | 2020 Q3 | $8.2 | -4.02% | 21.6% |
| ENSG | 2020 Q4 | $66.28 | -6.62% | -13.63% |
| ADUS | 2020 Q4 | $103.21 | -15.12% | -9.52% |
| AMED | 2020 Q4 | $256.41 | -22.42% | 14.14% |
| ACHC | 2020 Q4 | $39.86 | -24.76% | -17.92% |
| OTRK | 2020 Q4 | $60.64 | -27.61% | -34.6% |
| AVCO | 2020 Q4 | $1.19 | -33.38% | -43.93% |
| PNTG | 2020 Q4 | $48.09 | -34.32% | -16.83% |
| TVTY | 2020 Q4 | $16.6 | -40.23% | -71.46% |
| JYNT | 2020 Q4 | $22.89 | -43.74% | -34.45% |
